Can satellites help predict crime in New York City?

A tract-level test, 2018 to 2025, of whether vegetation, heat, night lights, radar and learned image embeddings add anything to next year's felony complaints and shootings beyond last year's counts and census demographics. Explore the data below, then see the answer.

~0%

Felony complaints: added predictive value from imagery, once the baseline is set properly

~6%

Shootings: possible gain in a two-year forward test, but only about 1% in spatial cross-validation

≤1%

Radar backscatter, even though it does detect new construction

Census tracts with at least 100 residents. Rates use 2023 population for every year. Hover a tract for its value; click it to see its history.

Selected tract

Click a tract on the map.